The false narrative of the Bruins-Hurricanes series
Carolina Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind'Amour is confident that he has found the perfect matchup for the Boston Bruins' top line in their best-of-seven series.
He has put the duty of shutting down the Bruins' first line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Jake Debrusk in the hands of his third line. The Hurricanes' trio consists of Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast.
Ok, yes, the Staal line has held the Bergeron line to just two goals all series, but they also haven't scored any against them. However, the underlying numbers show that maybe it's been the Carolina Hurricanes' goaltenders Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov who have more or less been the reason it's only 2-0 for the Bergeron line in the six games played so far.
However, former NHLer Anson Carter discussed on NHL on TNT, saying, "I don't know if [Bergeron] has it still."
Let's take a closer look at the numbers...
At five-on-five, the Bergeron line holds a majority share in some very important advanced stats in the series. They currently have 63.6% of the shot attempts, 63.3% of the shots on goal, and 68.0% of the expected goals when those two lines are on the ice together. Those numbers don't really scream that the Staal line is shutting down the Bergeron line, but the Bergeron line is controlling most of the play.
Another point to bring up is faceoffs, where apparently Staal has dominated Bergeron. When realistically, it's a razor-thin edge in Staal's favour at 33 to 32, with most of the damage being done in game one when he went 13 for 19 against Bergeron. So, Bergeron is actually 56.5% against him in the last five games, and the difference is mainly in the neutral zone, where Staal is 11 for 15.
Clearly, there's a false narrative from media or maybe just Hurricanes fans that the line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Jake Debrusk is being shut down by the Staal line. Looking at the stats, I think maybe it's more of a case that they've been up against some hot goaltending and have been a little unlucky as well.
Maybe game seven is the game where luck will change. As Bruins fans know, Patrice Bergeron likes to come up clutch in game sevens!
